Event: Social networking behemoth Facebook (NYSE: FB) has scheduled a special press conference for today at 1 p.m. Eastern time. The company is expected to announce some new product or business initiative and speculation about the specifics is running rampant. Shares of Facebook have moved higher on the news in advance of the conference. Since the middle of November the stock has soared by 50%.
Analysis: The special mystery conference was perfected by Apple. Facebook is no Apple. Today’s announcement could be anything from a Facebook phone to a bigger play for the search market. Even before the special event, shares of Facebook have recovered from the company’s ignominious initial public offering. Big lock-up expirations have now passed, allowing shares to surge unabated.
I expect the special event to be a major dud. Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg is unimpressive as a leader. There is little comparison between him and Steve Jobs of Apple. To think otherwise is ignorant. The guy is a supreme opportunist and a fair bit ruthless. Can he navigate the ship from here is another question. Specifically, how he will monetize his massive database of users will dictate whether the stock will rise or fall from here. I’m highly skeptical. In my opinion, the whole Facebook game is a house of cards likely to collapse. Whatever the announcement is today, I would look to book profits made in the last two months.
Action: Buy Facebook Put at the money Put options in advance of the special meeting.
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